@Article{NobreOlBoCaSiCa:2016:LaClCh,
author = "Nobre, Carlos Afonso and Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de and Borma,
Laura de Simone and Castilla-Rubio, Juan Carlos and Silva,
Jos{\'e} S. and Cardoso, Manoel Ferreira",
affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais
(CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}
and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Planetary Skin Institute} and {Universidade de Bras{\'{\i}}lia
(UnB)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a
novel sustainable development paradigm",
journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United
Sates of America",
year = "2016",
volume = "113",
number = "39",
pages = "10759--10768",
month = "Sept.",
keywords = "Amazon tropical forests, Amazon sustainability, Amazon land use,
Amazon savannization, climate change impacts.",
abstract = "For half a century, the process of economic integration of the
Amazon has been based on intensive use of renewable and
nonrenewable natural resources, which has brought significant
basin-wide environmental alterations. The rural development in the
Amazonia pushed the agricultural frontier swiftly, resulting in
widespread land-cover change, but agriculture in the Amazon has
been of low productivity and unsustainable. The loss of
biodiversity and continued deforestation will lead to high risks
of irreversible change of its tropical forests. It has been
established by modeling studies that the Amazon may have two
{"}tipping points,{"} namely, temperature increase of 4 degrees C
or deforestation exceeding 40% of the forest area. If
transgressed, large-scale {"}savannization{"} of mostly southern
and eastern Amazon may take place. The region has warmed about 1
degrees C over the last 60 y, and total deforestation is reaching
20% of the forested area. The recent significant reductions in
deforestation-80% reduction in the Brazilian Amazon in the last
decade-opens up opportunities for a novel sustainable development
paradigm for the future of the Amazon. We argue for a new
development paradigm-away from only attempting to reconcile
maximizing conservation versus intensification of traditional
agriculture and expansion of hydropower capacity-in which we
research, develop, and scale a high-tech innovation approach that
sees the Amazon as a global public good of biological assets that
can enable the creation of innovative high-value products,
services, and platforms through combining advanced digital,
biological, and material technologies of the Fourth Industrial
Revolution in progress.",
doi = "10.1073/pnas.1605516113",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1605516113",
issn = "0027-8424",
language = "en",
targetfile = "Nobre_land.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}